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🌧️ Monsoon Likely to Hit Kerala by May 27

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala by May 27, compared to the usual June 1 start date. If this projection holds true, it would be the earliest monsoon arrival since 2009, when it began on May 23.

Despite its early arrival, IMD officials emphasised that the onset date has no direct correlation with the total rainfall received during the season. The monsoon system is governed by large-scale atmospheric patterns, including global and regional climatic phenomena.

πŸ“Œ Points to Remember:

  • IMD predicts monsoon arrival in Kerala by May 27, earlier than the average June 1 date.

  • Last time it was this early was in 2009 (May 23).

  • Early onset does not guarantee early or even distribution across the rest of India.

  • 2025 monsoon season expected to bring above-normal rainfall (105% Β± 5%).

  • IMD rules out El NiΓ±o, increasing chances of good rainfall.

β˜” Why Monsoon Onset in Kerala Matters

Kerala is considered the gateway for the southwest monsoon into the Indian subcontinent. The IMD declares monsoon onset over the Indian mainland once it reaches Kerala. This event sets the tone for critical planning in agriculture, reservoir management, and disaster preparedness.

The southwest monsoon, spanning June to September, contributes about 75% of India’s annual rainfall, vital for the kharif crop season. While early monsoons can aid in timely sowing, uneven distribution or excess rainfall can pose challenges.

πŸ“Š Historical Trends and This Year’s Forecast

Here’s a brief comparison of monsoon onset dates over Kerala from past years:

Year Onset Date
2024 May 30
2023 June 8
2022 May 29
2021 June 3
2020 June 1
2019 June 8
2018 May 29

This year, IMD has forecast above-normal rainfall, with cumulative precipitation estimated at 105% of the long-period average (LPA) of 87 cm. The classification of rainfall is as follows:

  • Below Normal: 90% – 95% of LPA

  • Normal: 96% – 104%

  • Above Normal: 105% – 110%

  • Excess: >110%

  • Deficient: <90%

πŸ‘‰ Read monsoon forecast report here (DoFollow)

🚜 Implications for Agriculture and Economy

  • Agriculture: Around 42.3% of India’s population relies on farming. Early and well-distributed monsoon rains are crucial for timely sowing and yield.

  • GDP Impact: The sector contributes approximately 18.2% to India’s GDP. Better rainfall directly boosts rural income and demand.

  • Reservoir Replenishment: Monsoon is critical for recharging reservoirs, essential for drinking water and hydropower generation.

  • Disaster Preparedness: Early rainfall forecasts help government agencies plan flood management and relief operations more effectively.

  • Rural Employment Schemes: Programs like MGNREGA benefit from timely monsoon as they support water conservation and agriculture-related employment.

🧠 Points to Remember:

  • Kerala’s monsoon onset is a key climatic indicator for the rest of India.

  • IMD classifies rainfall using long-period averages (LPA).

  • 2025 monsoon is free from El NiΓ±o, improving rainfall prospects.

  • Agriculture, reservoirs, and power sectors are directly impacted by monsoon behaviour.

  • Government agencies use IMD forecasts for planning and relief work.

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